By Stephen Wilson
(Moscow, Russia) - When the most prominent opposition leader Alexei Navalny arrived at one of the main railway stations in Moscow after being released from prison, his arrival was compared with Lenin's arrival at the Finland station! The charismatic leader rose to the occasion by delivering a fiery speech thanking the opposition for organising mass demonstrations which he believes, led to his release. When he declared 'We have the power', the crowd chanted back in chorus.
The anti-corruption lawyer is now currently immersed in a mass campaign to win voters for the position of Mayor. Since recently being sentenced to five years for alleged 'embezzling of 16 million rubles (on what most Russians regard as fabricated charges), his profile and popularity has surged up. Acute observers predict his share of the vote might even reach if not surpass the twenty percent mark. This would represent a great achievement. However, since the current mayor still enjoys considerable popularity, Navalny will have a steep challenge.
What is certain is that his release indicates an increasing shaky government that seems to be confused at how to react to the opposition. The Government may be in a kind of catch 22 situation. If they use repressive methods such as imprisoning leaders on false charges they boost the support of the opposition, if they they let them campaign, they also allow the opposition to gain support.
The increasingly erratic activity of the Duma, the dramatic increase in repressive legal courts to imprison not just political dissidents, but just about anyone who happens to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, and the worsening economic climate, not to mention sufficient turn outs at demonstrations over the past couple of years, has led to some to conclude we are witnessing a revolutionary situation in Russia. Are we facing a revolutionary situation?
Perhaps it is an overstatement to say we are in one, but it is not so far fetched to declare we could well be facing one within a few months. All it might take it as economic default in early autumn. Nevertheless, before we get carried away, we can't forget that Putin still retains a massive reservoir of support from many officials and people who have prospered from his rule. In addition, Putin is one of the few leaders who managed to establish a degree of stability where living standards dramatically rose until 2008. He is a strong and articulate leader, and Russians adore strong leaders, authoritarian or not.
According to a survey by Levada, in April 2013, 57% of Russians polled believed that Russian is now sliding into a revolutionary situation.
A NEW MOSCOW
The release of Navalny is thought to have been due to the acting mayor Sergei Sobyanin who seeks to legitimise his coming election. Most pundits predict he is almost certain to win in Moscow. Despite the fact that Putin only won 46% of the vote of Muscovites, the opposition are unlikely to win since their votes will be split up and Navalny still lacks a high profile. The present mayor has actually achieved a lot in Moscow. He has developed gardens, parks, pedestrian zones, new parking spaces and attempted to improve a lot of services. At this moment of time there is an intense construction work around my area. Every road I turn up, a truck or bulldozer is flattening new tar! Construction is relentless, ceaseless and unavoidable. In fact, it gets on your nerves. What is odd is for a decent pavement to be broken up and replaced by bricks from a construction company. Is there any need for it? This only fuels already widespread beliefs that there there is corrupt collusion between building construction companies and officials.
The mayor's programme is a model of simplicity! He lays out seven priorities; a more mobile city, a comfortable city, a healthy city, an educated city, a kind city, an open city and a safe city. He declares his vision with the almost sentimental words:
'I see our city as a modern, dynamic world Metropolis and I will do all I can to preserve Moscow's traditions and unique old charm. I want Moscow to be not just a place of successful work, but a place to rest, walk and feel yourself at home.'
One significant point you notice on all the public billboards is a slogan shared by all the candidates. 'Stop illegal migration! 'There is not a single candidate who is giving a voice to the migrants! At this moment, they are being rounded up and placed in special deportation camps. Sympathy for migrants or the homeless is no-vote winner!
Certainly, compared to the Moscow of twenty years ago, the city is easier for tourists.There are far more directions in signs on the public transport in English! The city is much more tourist friendly than previously. But practically all the kiosks you once saw selling bread, beer or cigarettes have been closed down. You can buy a newspaper from a nearby kiosk, but forget about bread or milk. You need to drop into a busy supermarket. A lot of popular markets selling cheap products have been closed down. Now you have to purchase food at more expensive supermarkets!
The Challenge of Navalny
I decided to interview some of Navalny's supporters. I came across a young girl who handed me a leaflet and brochure explaining their policies. The girl must have been around 17 or 18 and had a beautiful face and long dark jet hair. She struck me as quite charismatic and capable of answering some questions. I asked 'Look, I know what Navalny is, but I don't know what he is for? Is he a socialist, anarchist or liberal?'
She answered, 'He is a democrat fighting against corruption and his policies are in this pamphlet. Here you are, if you read them'.
'Is he not some nationalist?'
'I don't think he is. All he wants to do is make migration legal. This would be easier for the migrants.'
'What are his policies on education?'
'Take this brochure and read it. We have appointed a panel of experts to deal with those questions.'
The mayor says that teachers in kindergardens make an astounding 1500 dollars.'
'They make those figures up. In fact, the situation in state nurseries is sad, with poor and unqualified grandmothers trying to supplement their income by working there.
'But look at the Mayor's programme. They have not written a single word about tackling corruption.'
'What happens if Navalny is put back in prison again?'
'We will do our best to get him out!'
I stopped pestering the girl with my questions and examined the material promoting him. It was clear that the central question was how to get rid of corruption which he claimed was the main problem preventing the development of a more just and caring society.
'Changes in Russia,begin in Moscow ', and 'Honest power, a European level of life' were some of the main slogans. The programme of Navalny is concrete, real and prepared by the best experts'. It is against 'The party of crooks and thieves'(United Russia). He seeks to end monopolies, decentralise authority and make business more transparent and accountable.
To the claim that the present mayor has invested a lot of money in Moscow, Navalny retorts 'Why are there not any new benches in the parks of my local district in Moscow? They could afford to do this! They have a huge budget! 'The local government budget comes to more than 1.6 trillion Rubles a year, comparable to the city of New York. This works out to 140,000 rubles for every Muscovite, including our children. This is enough money to live a decent life in Moscow; for the rich, for the poor, for the young and for the residents, not worse than in any other European city.'
He claims that a lot of this money is wasted or stolen through corruption.
Navalny's opponents claim that he lacks political experience and is just another agitator. At one extreme, Zhirinovsky described Navalny 'as part of an American fifth column'. Nevertheless, his anti-corruption platform and his call for fairer elections is finding an echo in Moscow. I met many voters who said they would vote for him because 'he is brave' and 'I feel sorry for him being put in prison. 'I 'm worried this government might treat him cruelly'. Even people who don't agree with some of his nationalist rhetoric are going to vote for him.
What is evident from the recent mass street demonstrations calling for Navalny's release, is that his support has not dwindled away. It remains strikingly significant! According to some statistics by Lenta.Ru, Gaeta.ru and Radio Ekho Moscow', the demonstration at Chistoprudni Bulvar came to 7000 on the 5th of December 2011. By the 10th of December, as many as 85,000 gathered at Bolotnaya square and over the winter from 2011 to 2012 it reached a height of approximately 120,000. Since then and up to the present the number of demonstrators had tended to hover between 20,000 and 25,000.
The estimates clearly indicate that the protest movement might have suffered set backs, but it is not going to mysteriously fade away. That is why we are not exaggerating the fact that Russia may in deed be at a crossroads and major turning point in her history. You can only turn back the clock so far. A return to the Soviet Union might turn out be be wishful thinking, or even a case of amnesia. Russians are increasingly comparing their lives to European standards, rather than the once stagnant and stale Soviet era.
And anything could happen in Russia!
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